WP4: Pan-EU Risk Modelling

In Work Package 4 (WP4), Trees4Adapt takes a pan-European perspective, developing high-resolution models and maps that show how changes in climate, biodiversity, hydrology, and forest dynamics interact across the continent. By integrating data from WP1, WP2, and WP3 with climate projections, disturbance models, species occurrences, and land use information, WP4 identifies compound and cascading risks affecting forests, species, and water systems under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

A major objective of WP4 is to map “homologous regions”- areas that face similar combinations of risks and opportunities as a result of climate change and biodiversity loss – so that adaptation strategies and tree-based solutions can be targeted where they are most effective. This work includes modelling wildfire risk, drought, flooding, pest outbreaks, and species distribution shifts, alongside the performance of different forest management pathways.

WP4 produces a pan-European decision support tool featuring interactive maps that support planners, authorities, and policymakers in identifying suitable interventions and prioritising adaptation measures. By bridging local insights and Europe-wide modelling, WP4 plays a crucial role in upscaling Trees4Adapt’s findings to a continental level.